Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Floridians, Get Ready

The long-feared correction appears to be under way ....

This from the St. Petersburg Times

Home values on the way down

Last week, a new report said the cost of owning a home in Florida rose at nearly twice the national rate over the past five years, consuming an ever larger share of homeowners’ incomes. The Census Bureau said Floridians last year spent 22 cents of every $1 of income on housing, up from 19.6 cents per dollar in 2000. Nationally, Americans spent 20.9 cents per buck last year on housing. Residents in only nine other states spend more, based on income percentage, than wage-challenged Floridians.

And its not just the price of the home ...

What didn’t show up in the dated Census figures are the runaway costs in Florida of property insurance, real estate taxes and utilities within the past year. A lot more Floridians now find the formula — housing costs + mortgage + taxes + insurance — pushes them well over the 30 percent comfort zone of income devoted to a home.


And right next door to Destin, Panama City is hit hard

Of 20 larger metro markets in Florida, the median sales price of a home in 12 markets dropped (worst: Panama City, down 15 percent) and increased in only eight (best: Ocala, up 14 percent).

Its Happened Before in Florida

"Market crashes always occur in the same manner. Regardless of the market, the same simple psychological underpinnings are always at work. People who are caught up in a bubble never look back for historical examples. For this folly, they become paupers."



The Florida Real Estate Craze

When: 1926

Where: Florida

The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: Land that could be bought for $800,000 could, within a year, be resold for $4 million before crashing back down to pre-boom levels. The prices were so inflated that to buy a condo-style property in 1926, you would've had to pay the same as you would now have to pay for a luxury home in the guard-gated communities in Miami ($4,500,000)--without adjusting for inflation!

Synopsis: In the 1920s, the United States of America was chugging along like the British Empire of the 1700s, and it was only natural that people were beginning to believe such prosperity was infinite. But it wasn't the stock market that was the recipient of a bubble. It was the real estate market.

In 1920, Florida became the popular US destination/residence for people who don't like the cold. The population was growing steadily and housing couldn't match the demand, causing prices to double and triple in some cases, which was not exactly unjustified at this point. But, news of anything doubling and tripling in price always attracts speculators. So, once people began pumping huge amounts of money into the real estate market it took off. Soon everyone in Florida was either a real estate investor or a real estate agent.

Unfortunately, the rules are the same whether you pay too much for a stock or for a piece of land: you have to make that much more to claim a profit. This did happen for awhile, and land prices quadrupled in less than a year. Eventually, however, there were no “greater fools” to buy the disgustingly overpriced land, and prices began to adjust ever so subtly. Speculators realized there was a limit to the boom, and began to sell their properties to solidify their profits while they could.

Then everybody simultaneously saw the writing on the wall, and panic selling ensued. With thousands of sellers and
very few buyers, prices came down with a sickening thud, twitched a bit, and then crawled down even lower.


More on the 1926 Florida Real Estate Crash ...


Florida Real Estate Bubble

The 1920’s, in America, were a time of great prosperity. Skilled and educated working Americans had jobs providing numerous fringe benefits, paid vacations and pensions. In addition, automobiles were becoming commonplace for the wealthy and middle class allowing cross country travel. This good fortune set the stage for the Florida real estate bubble.

Starting in 1920, many Americans became enamored by the materialistic and prosperous lifestyle of the time. During this time, the stock market was moving forward at an extremely fast pace. Many investors were becoming quite wealthy. Florida became a hot spot for these newly rich people, who didn’t enjoy the cold. Many whole families took vacations to Florida. It was at this point that tourism started booming and land prices were skyrocketing. Many astute investors took notice and started buying Florida real estate. The population in Florida was growing exponentially and housing couldn’t meet the demand. Florida became the “playground of the rich and famous”. Illegal casinos and drinking parlors became widespread in Miami.

At this point, almost anybody could invest in Florida, even without much money. Credit was plentiful and soon everybody in Florida was either a real estate investor or a real estate agent. In 1922, the Miami Herald became the heaviest newspaper in the world as a result of its humongous real estate advertisements. People in the North heard about the real estate prices “doubling and tripling”, causing a snowball effect. Capital was rapidly pumped into the real estate market. Whole golf communities were developed, such as Temple Terrace. Resorts and retirement communities were developed almost overnight. Mansions were sprawling in every area, as were swimming pools. As always, waterfront property was the most desirable. Florida was seen as a veritable Utopia.

Real estate prices quadrupled in less than one year. An elderly man invested $1,700 in property and by 1925 the property was worth over $300,000! It seemed you could do no wrong by just buying any property in Florida and become a millionaire. By 1925, real estate prices had become so exorbitant that buying land wasn’t affordable any longer. New investors failed to arrive and old investors started to sell. Panic arrived, as it always does, and the real estate market crashed. Prices kept moving downwards as heavily indebted investors tried to sell to avoid bankruptcy. In most cases, no buyers arrived, and the investors were bankrupt from the enormous mortgages.

To make matters even worse, a highly destructive hurricane ravaged South Florida in September 1926. The 125 mile an hour winds eventually turned Palm Beach County into swamp lands. After the storm, a huge tidal wave crashed upon the towns of Belle Glade and Moore Haven. Due to these horrible turn of events, over 13,000 homes were destroyed and 415 people died. Additionally, the arrival of the Mediterranean fruit fly obliterated the large citrus industry. It took years for Florida to fully recover, even through the highly prosperous time from 1925 to 1929. Florida was barely affected in the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, because of its poor financial state from the start.

Market crashes always occur in the same manner. Regardless of the market, the same simple psychological underpinnings are always at work. People who are caught up in a bubble never look back for historical examples. For this folly, they become paupers.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

And more ...

The 1926 Florida Real Estate Crash!

If you look at the prices of some houses, you will see that after almost 70 years some houses are still selling for less than what the then owners paid for them.

Monday, October 30, 2006

A Short History of Prices in Destin


Just twenty years ago, Destin was just a small fishing town. But in 1993, a new bridge providing tourists easy access to the island. Fast forward and in 12 years, Destin was a major tourist attraction.

Read this July 2005 piece from Chris Anderson, a resident and author of real estate books:



Destin Florida Triples In 3 Years


"Do you want to see something that is absolutely amazing? Let me show you what has happened in Destin, Florida over the last 3 years. Back in August of 2002, the median price of a home selling in Destin was $229,000. One year later, August 2003, the median price in Destin increased to $305,000, or a 33% price increase.

"Roll the clock forward in July 2005, and we see that the average price is now $658,000 as you can see in the price charts below. Do you think there was a little money made in Destin over the last few years? Since I live in the area, I can attest to the HUGE role real estate has played in our local economy and large amount of wealth that has been produced.

"For the Monday morning arm chair quarterbacks of the world, you can just hear them at a dinner party saying?. "Boy, I knew that real estate was going up around there and I came close to buying a piece of property back in ??.". "If I WOULD OF have purchased that property, I COULD HAVE made a killing?. I guess I SHOULD HAVE bought it before prices went so high. This is what investors call the Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda syndrome.

"The WORST thing an investor could do right now is to realize that they missed some gain potential in Destin and then assume that prices will just keep going to the moon. Rather than kicking themselves for actions taken in the past, what this investor should be doing is trying to understand what has happened in the past and then apply that knowledge to FUTURE investments. Let' rewind the clock and see what happened to see if it sheds any clues as to what we should be looking for in the future."


Read the whole thing.

Friday, October 27, 2006

Why a Destin Bubble Blog?

I vacationed in Destin, Florida in the summer of 2005. It’s a beautiful place with spectacular, sugar white beaches.













My family and I stayed in a very nice low-rise condo complex in the eastern, Miramar Beach area of Destin. We liked it so much, I decided to check into prices on two bedroom, gulf view (that's "gulf view", not "gulf front") condos. I have one vacation property in the north Georgia mountains that is cash-flow positive in its second full year. I want a beach condo to add to my vacation rental portfolio.

I was shocked to say the least ... 2nd floor and above units (I'd never buy a first floor - hurricanes wash through first floor condos) with decent gulf views were $550,000 to $600,000. I was shocked because when I did the math on rental income versus a mortgage, sky-high quarterly fees ($1200 per quarter) and sky high property taxes ($2500 per year), there's NO WAY purchasing one of these could come any where near cash-flow positive unless rental rates doubled which isn’t likely to happen for decades. I couldn't understand why anyone would buy at these prices.

I began researching coastal real estate prices. That's when I first began reading about the housing bubble and the coming bust. I began tracking prices of two bedroom units in the this condo complex. I've been tracking them since January 2006. What I have witnessed is truly amazing.

I will quote some detailed statistics in a coming post. What I will tell you right now is, of 30 units I've tracked since January of 2006, six have either sold or been taken off the market. Of the remaining 24, five have been reduced in price once, three have been reduced twice, and three have been reduced three times. The largest reduction (actually three reductions over time) was 22.2% or $99,900.

Here are some things that will be coming to this blog shortly:

1) More detailed statistics on the condo complex I've been tracking. I think this will shed some light on what's happening with prices in Destin.

2) Links to other bubble blogs and financial sites. A broader view of this historic housing bubble burst.

3) A history of the real estate explosion in Destin and where I think things are going.

My goal is to provide information potential buyers might use before investing in Destin's highly inflated prices. This information can also be used to judge other coastal Florida areas (such as Panama City, Daytona Beachl, etc.).

I love Destin and I intend to own there. But I'm going to own one of those condo's listed for $600,000 in 2005 for $250,000 to $300,000. That’s going to happen in the next 6 months to two years, depending upon how fast the bubble burst accelerates.

I'm going to have at least a break-even or a positive cash-flow on my Destin vacation property. Condo flippers pain, my gain. As it ought to be.